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Monterrey vs Atlas — Liga MX 2026

Monterrey
Monterrey
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Atlas
Atlas
7/27/2025Liga MXLiga MX · Apertura - 3Estadio BBVA Bancomer

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 146+ matches

Monterrey52%
×Draw24%
Atlas23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Monterrey
1.66
Atlas
1.02

Monterrey creates 63% more chances

Season form · 157 home / 146 away

creates per match

Monterrey
1.75
Atlas
1.07

allows per match

Monterrey
0.97
Atlas
1.56

finishing

Monterrey+0.00on par
Atlas+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Monterrey ↓

Atlas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Monterrey or draw
77%
Monterrey or Atlas
76%
Draw or Atlas
48%

Winning margin

Monterrey wins by 2+
28%
Atlas wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Monterrey 1+ goals
81%
Monterrey 2+ goals
49%
Monterrey 3+ goals
23%
Atlas 1+ goals
64%
Atlas 2+ goals
27%
Atlas 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Monterrey (draw refunded)
69%
Atlas (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Monterrey at home — creates 1.75, concedes 0.97 · 157 matches

Atlas away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.56 · 146 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Monterrey attack 1.75 + Atlas defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.66

Atlas attack 1.07 + Monterrey defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Monterrey scores more
52%
level
24%
Atlas scores more
23%

Monterrey at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Monterrey will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Monterrey vs Atlas

Monterrey beat Atlas 3-1 in Liga MX on July 27, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio BBVA Bancomer in Monterrey.