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Atlas vs Monterrey — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Atlas
Atlas
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Monterrey
Monterrey
1/5/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Atlas19%
×Draw20%
Monterrey61%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlas
1.09
Monterrey
2.12

Monterrey creates 94% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 7 away

creates per match

Atlas
1.33
Monterrey
2.57

allows per match

Atlas
1.67
Monterrey
0.86

finishing

Atlas+0.00on par
Monterrey+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlas ↓

Monterrey →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–19%
0–29%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–25%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Atlas or draw
39%
Atlas or Monterrey
80%
Draw or Monterrey
81%

Winning margin

Atlas wins by 2+
7%
Monterrey wins by 2+
37%

Team goals

Atlas 1+ goals
66%
Atlas 2+ goals
30%
Atlas 3+ goals
10%
Monterrey 1+ goals
88%
Monterrey 2+ goals
62%
Monterrey 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Atlas (draw refunded)
24%
Monterrey (draw refunded)
76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlas at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.67 · 9 matches

Monterrey away — creates 2.57, concedes 0.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlas attack 1.33 + Monterrey defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.09

Monterrey attack 2.57 + Atlas defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Atlas scores more
19%
level
20%
Monterrey scores more
61%

Monterrey at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Monterrey will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Atlas 1–2 Monterrey

Monterrey beat Atlas 2-1 in Friendlies Clubs on January 5, 2026.