Monterey Bay 0–1 Indy Eleven: Result & Stats

Monterey Bay

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Indy Eleven

5/5/2024

USL Championship · Round 10Cardinale Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Monterey Bay43%

×Draw26%

Indy Eleven31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Monterey BayExpected goals in this matchIndy Eleven

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

1.18

Monterey Bay

1.43

Indy Eleven

1.18

Monterey Bay creates 21% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 129 away

1.28

creates per match

1.11

1.24

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Monterey Bay

1.28

Indy Eleven

1.11

allows per match

Monterey Bay

1.24

Indy Eleven

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Monterey Bay+0.00on par

Indy Eleven+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Monterey Bay ↓

Indy Eleven →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Monterey Bay or draw

69%

Monterey Bay or Indy Eleven

74%

Draw or Indy Eleven

57%

Winning margin

Monterey Bay wins by 2+

20%

Indy Eleven wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Monterey Bay 1+ goals

76%

Monterey Bay 2+ goals

42%

Monterey Bay 3+ goals

17%

Indy Eleven 1+ goals

69%

Indy Eleven 2+ goals

33%

Indy Eleven 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Monterey Bay (draw refunded)

58%

Indy Eleven (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Monterey Bay at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.24 · 74 matches

Indy Eleven away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.58 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Monterey Bay attack 1.28 + Indy Eleven defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.43

Indy Eleven attack 1.11 + Monterey Bay defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Monterey Bay scores more

43%

level

26%

Indy Eleven scores more

31%

Monterey Bay at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Monterey Bay will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff