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Indy Eleven vs Monterey Bay — USL Championship 2026

Indy Eleven
Indy Eleven
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Monterey Bay
Monterey Bay
7/5/2025USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 18Michael A. Carroll Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Indy Eleven53%
×Draw25%
Monterey Bay22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Indy Eleven
1.64
Monterey Bay
0.97

Indy Eleven creates 69% more chances

Season form · 134 home / 73 away

creates per match

Indy Eleven
1.49
Monterey Bay
0.81

allows per match

Indy Eleven
1.12
Monterey Bay
1.79

finishing

Indy Eleven+0.00on par
Monterey Bay+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Indy Eleven ↓

Monterey Bay →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Indy Eleven or draw
78%
Indy Eleven or Monterey Bay
75%
Draw or Monterey Bay
47%

Winning margin

Indy Eleven wins by 2+
28%
Monterey Bay wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Indy Eleven 1+ goals
81%
Indy Eleven 2+ goals
49%
Indy Eleven 3+ goals
23%
Monterey Bay 1+ goals
62%
Monterey Bay 2+ goals
25%
Monterey Bay 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Indy Eleven (draw refunded)
70%
Monterey Bay (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Indy Eleven at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.12 · 134 matches

Monterey Bay away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.79 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Indy Eleven attack 1.49 + Monterey Bay defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.64

Monterey Bay attack 0.81 + Indy Eleven defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Indy Eleven scores more
53%
level
25%
Monterey Bay scores more
22%

Indy Eleven at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Indy Eleven will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL Championship: Indy Eleven 3–0 Monterey Bay

Indy Eleven beat Monterey Bay 3-0 in USL Championship on July 5, 2025.

The match was played at Michael A. Carroll Stadium.