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Monterey Bay II vs Almaden — USL League Two 2026

Monterey Bay II
Monterey Bay II
FT
1 – 1
Almaden
Almaden
7/13/2024USL League TwoUSL League Two · Western Conference - 20Cardinale Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Monterey Bay II35%
×Draw27%
Almaden39%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Monterey Bay II
1.25
Almaden
1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 19 away

creates per match

Monterey Bay II
1.93
Almaden
1.47

allows per match

Monterey Bay II
1.20
Almaden
0.58

finishing

Monterey Bay II+0.00on par
Almaden+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Monterey Bay II ↓

Almaden →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Monterey Bay II or draw
61%
Monterey Bay II or Almaden
73%
Draw or Almaden
65%

Winning margin

Monterey Bay II wins by 2+
15%
Almaden wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Monterey Bay II 1+ goals
71%
Monterey Bay II 2+ goals
36%
Monterey Bay II 3+ goals
13%
Almaden 1+ goals
74%
Almaden 2+ goals
38%
Almaden 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Monterey Bay II (draw refunded)
47%
Almaden (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Monterey Bay II at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.20 · 15 matches

Almaden away — creates 1.47, concedes 0.58 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Monterey Bay II attack 1.93 + Almaden defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 1.25

Almaden attack 1.47 + Monterey Bay II defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Monterey Bay II scores more
35%
level
27%
Almaden scores more
39%

Almaden at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Almaden will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL League Two: Monterey Bay II 1–1 Almaden

Monterey Bay II and Almaden drew 1-1 in USL League Two on July 13, 2024.

The match was played at Cardinale Stadium in Seaside, California.