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Almaden vs Monterey Bay II — USL League Two 2026

Almaden
Almaden
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Monterey Bay II
Monterey Bay II
6/29/2024USL League TwoUSL League Two · Western Conference - 15Hollway Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Almaden60%
×Draw20%
Monterey Bay II20%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Almaden
2.20
Monterey Bay II
1.20

Almaden creates 83% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 14 away

creates per match

Almaden
2.39
Monterey Bay II
1.29

allows per match

Almaden
1.11
Monterey Bay II
2.00

finishing

Almaden+0.00on par
Monterey Bay II+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Almaden ↓

Monterey Bay II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Almaden or draw
80%
Almaden or Monterey Bay II
80%
Draw or Monterey Bay II
40%

Winning margin

Almaden wins by 2+
37%
Monterey Bay II wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Almaden 1+ goals
89%
Almaden 2+ goals
64%
Almaden 3+ goals
37%
Monterey Bay II 1+ goals
70%
Monterey Bay II 2+ goals
34%
Monterey Bay II 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Almaden (draw refunded)
75%
Monterey Bay II (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Almaden at home — creates 2.39, concedes 1.11 · 18 matches

Monterey Bay II away — creates 1.29, concedes 2.00 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Almaden attack 2.39 + Monterey Bay II defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.20

Monterey Bay II attack 1.29 + Almaden defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Almaden scores more
60%
level
20%
Monterey Bay II scores more
20%

Almaden at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Almaden will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

62'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL League Two: Almaden 2–1 Monterey Bay II

Almaden beat Monterey Bay II 2-1 in USL League Two on June 29, 2024.

The match was played at Hollway Field in Ann Arbor, Michigan.