Monterey Bay II 6–2 Academica: Result & Stats

Monterey Bay II

FT

6 – 2

HT: 4 – 1

Academica

5/11/2024

USL League Two · Western Conference - 1Cardinale Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Monterey Bay II58%

×Draw20%

Academica22%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Monterey Bay IIExpected goals in this matchAcademica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.21

1.29

Monterey Bay II

2.21

Academica

1.29

Monterey Bay II creates 71% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 18 away

1.93

creates per match

1.39

1.20

allows per match

2.50

creates per match

Monterey Bay II

1.93

Academica

1.39

allows per match

Monterey Bay II

1.20

Academica

2.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Monterey Bay II+0.00on par

Academica+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Monterey Bay II ↓

Academica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Monterey Bay II or draw

78%

Monterey Bay II or Academica

80%

Draw or Academica

42%

Winning margin

Monterey Bay II wins by 2+

36%

Academica wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Monterey Bay II 1+ goals

89%

Monterey Bay II 2+ goals

65%

Monterey Bay II 3+ goals

38%

Academica 1+ goals

72%

Academica 2+ goals

37%

Academica 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Monterey Bay II (draw refunded)

73%

Academica (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Monterey Bay II at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.20 · 15 matches

Academica away — creates 1.39, concedes 2.50 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Monterey Bay II attack 1.93 + Academica defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.21

Academica attack 1.39 + Monterey Bay II defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Monterey Bay II scores more

58%

level

20%

Academica scores more

22%

Monterey Bay II at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Monterey Bay II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff