Academica 4–0 Monterey Bay II: Result & Stats

Academica

FT

4 – 0

HT: 4 – 0

Monterey Bay II

6/16/2024

USL League Two · Western Conference - 11Academica Soccer Fields

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Academica45%

×Draw23%

Monterey Bay II32%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AcademicaExpected goals in this matchMonterey Bay II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

1.50

Academica

1.83

Monterey Bay II

1.50

Academica creates 22% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 14 away

1.67

creates per match

1.29

1.72

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Academica

1.67

Monterey Bay II

1.29

allows per match

Academica

1.72

Monterey Bay II

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Academica+0.00on par

Monterey Bay II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Academica ↓

Monterey Bay II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

65%35%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Academica or draw

68%

Academica or Monterey Bay II

77%

Draw or Monterey Bay II

55%

Winning margin

Academica wins by 2+

25%

Monterey Bay II wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Academica 1+ goals

84%

Academica 2+ goals

54%

Academica 3+ goals

28%

Monterey Bay II 1+ goals

78%

Monterey Bay II 2+ goals

44%

Monterey Bay II 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Academica (draw refunded)

59%

Monterey Bay II (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Academica at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.72 · 18 matches

Monterey Bay II away — creates 1.29, concedes 2.00 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Academica attack 1.67 + Monterey Bay II defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.83

Monterey Bay II attack 1.29 + Academica defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Academica scores more

45%

level

23%

Monterey Bay II scores more

32%

Academica at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Academica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff