Montenegro 2–0 Lithuania: Result & Stats

Montenegro

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Lithuania

Marko Janković 35'

Stefan Savić 34' (pen)

9/10/2018

UEFA Nations League · League C - 2Stadion pod Goricom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Montenegro56%

×Draw25%

Lithuania19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MontenegroExpected goals in this matchLithuania

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

0.81

Montenegro

1.61

Lithuania

0.81

Montenegro creates 99% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 13 away

1.45

creates per match

0.62

1.00

allows per match

1.77

creates per match

Montenegro

1.45

Lithuania

0.62

allows per match

Montenegro

1.00

Lithuania

1.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Montenegro+0.00on par

Lithuania+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Montenegro ↓

Lithuania →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Montenegro or draw

81%

Montenegro or Lithuania

75%

Draw or Lithuania

44%

Winning margin

Montenegro wins by 2+

30%

Lithuania wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Montenegro 1+ goals

80%

Montenegro 2+ goals

48%

Montenegro 3+ goals

22%

Lithuania 1+ goals

56%

Lithuania 2+ goals

19%

Lithuania 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Montenegro (draw refunded)

75%

Lithuania (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Montenegro at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.00 · 11 matches

Lithuania away — creates 0.62, concedes 1.77 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Montenegro attack 1.45 + Lithuania defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.61

Lithuania attack 0.62 + Montenegro defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Montenegro scores more

56%

level

25%

Lithuania scores more

19%

Montenegro at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Montenegro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

Nikola Vukčević

34'

Stefan SavićPenalty

35'

Marko Janković↳ Žarko Tomašević

39'

Marko Janković

46'

Mantas Kuklys← Ovidijus Verbickas

46'

Valdemar Borovskis← Povilas Leimonas

52'

Egidijus Vaitkūnas

54'

Justas Lasickas

62'

Darvydas Šernas← Justas Lasickas

71'

Aleksandar Šćekić← Nikola Vukčević

79'

Modestas Vorobjovas

80'

Stefan Savić← Stefan Savić

87'

Aleksandar Boljević← Marko Janković

Possession

Shots

Statistics

MontenegroLithuania

Overview

59%Possession41%

8Total Shots7

5Corners2

14Fouls14

Shots

8Total Shots7

6On Target4

2Off Target3

Passing

59%Possession41%

Goalkeeping

4Saves4

Discipline

14Fouls14

2Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards0

3Offsides0