Lithuania 1–4 Montenegro: Result & Stats

Lithuania

FT

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 3

Montenegro

Rolandas Baravykas 88'

Darko Zorić 86'

Stefan Mugoša 45' (pen), 10'

Boris Kopitović 35'

10/14/2018

UEFA Nations League · League C - 4LFF Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Lithuania21%

×Draw27%

Montenegro52%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LithuaniaExpected goals in this matchMontenegro

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.78

1.41

Lithuania

0.78

Montenegro

1.41

Montenegro creates 81% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 9 away

0.67

creates per match

0.89

1.92

allows per match

0.89

creates per match

Lithuania

0.67

Montenegro

0.89

allows per match

Lithuania

1.92

Montenegro

0.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lithuania+0.00on par

Montenegro+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lithuania ↓

Montenegro →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–116%

0–211%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–03%

2–15%

2–23%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Lithuania or draw

48%

Lithuania or Montenegro

73%

Draw or Montenegro

79%

Winning margin

Lithuania wins by 2+

6%

Montenegro wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Lithuania 1+ goals

54%

Lithuania 2+ goals

18%

Lithuania 3+ goals

4%

Montenegro 1+ goals

76%

Montenegro 2+ goals

41%

Montenegro 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Lithuania (draw refunded)

29%

Montenegro (draw refunded)

71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lithuania at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.92 · 12 matches

Montenegro away — creates 0.89, concedes 0.89 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lithuania attack 0.67 + Montenegro defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.78

Montenegro attack 0.89 + Lithuania defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Lithuania scores more

21%

level

27%

Montenegro scores more

52%

Montenegro at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Montenegro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

Stefan Mugoša↳ Marko Vešović

33'

Marko Vešović

35'

Boris Kopitović↳ Aleksandar Šćekić

45'

Linas Klimavičius

45'

Stefan MugošaPenalty

46'

Mantas Kuklys← Modestas Vorobjovas

50'

Deimantas Petravičius← Fedor Černych

57'

Marko Vešović← Marko Vešović

72'

Fatos Beqiraj← Vladimir Jovović

79'

Donatas Kazlauskas← Nerijus Valskis

86'

Darko Zorić↳ Fatos Beqiraj

87'

Risto Radunović← Filip Stojković

88'

Rolandas Baravykas↳ Arvydas Novikovas

Possession

Shots

Statistics

LithuaniaMontenegro

Overview

43%Possession57%

10Total Shots11

3Corners8

14Fouls8

Shots

10Total Shots11

6On Target8

4Off Target3

Passing

43%Possession57%

Goalkeeping

4Saves5

Discipline

14Fouls8

1Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards0

1Offsides2