Montenegro 1–1 Kosovo: Result & Stats

Montenegro

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Kosovo

S. Mugoša 69'

M. Rashica 24'

6/7/2019

Euro Championship · Qualifying Round - 3Stadion Pod Goricom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Montenegro28%

×Draw22%

Kosovo51%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MontenegroExpected goals in this matchKosovo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

2.02

Montenegro

1.45

Kosovo

2.02

Kosovo creates 39% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

0.50

creates per match

1.80

2.25

allows per match

2.40

creates per match

Montenegro

0.50

Kosovo

1.80

allows per match

Montenegro

2.25

Kosovo

2.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Montenegro+0.00on par

Kosovo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Montenegro ↓

Kosovo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Montenegro or draw

49%

Montenegro or Kosovo

78%

Draw or Kosovo

72%

Winning margin

Montenegro wins by 2+

12%

Kosovo wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

Montenegro 1+ goals

77%

Montenegro 2+ goals

42%

Montenegro 3+ goals

18%

Kosovo 1+ goals

87%

Kosovo 2+ goals

60%

Kosovo 3+ goals

33%

Draw no bet

Montenegro (draw refunded)

35%

Kosovo (draw refunded)

65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Montenegro at home — creates 0.50, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

Kosovo away — creates 1.80, concedes 2.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Montenegro attack 0.50 + Kosovo defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 1.45

Kosovo attack 1.80 + Montenegro defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Montenegro scores more

28%

level

22%

Kosovo scores more

51%

Kosovo at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Kosovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

B. Halimi

Kosovo · M

7.5

Match Events

24'

M. Rashica

38'

E. Zhegrova← A. Zeneli

51'

Marko Vešović

57'

Leart Paqarda

59'

M. Bakić← A. Šćekić

69'

S. Mugoša↳ M. Janković

70'

B. Kololli← L. Paqarada

71'

A. Boljević← Ž. Tomašević

76'

Arijanet Murić

78'

E. Rashani← B. Celina

82'

Milot Rashica

83'

Marko Simic

85'

V. Jovović← M. Janković

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MontenegroKosovo

Overview

46%Possession54%

9Total Shots8

1Corners5

13Fouls15

Shots

9Total Shots8

3On Target5

4Off Target1

2Blocked2

6Inside Box5

3Outside Box3

Passing

46%Possession54%

417Total Passes476

329Accurate Passes367

79%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

13Fouls15

2Yellow Cards3

1Offsides0