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Kosovo vs Montenegro — Euro Championship 2024

Kosovo
Kosovo
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Montenegro
Montenegro
V. Muriqi 34'
A. Rrahmani 10'
10/14/2019Euro ChampionshipEuro Championship · Qualifying Round - 8Stadiumi Fadil Vokrri

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Kosovo68%
×Draw19%
Montenegro13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kosovo
2.25
Montenegro
0.88

Kosovo creates 156% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

creates per match

Kosovo
1.25
Montenegro
0.25

allows per match

Kosovo
1.50
Montenegro
3.25

finishing

Kosovo+0.00on par
Montenegro+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kosovo ↓

Montenegro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Kosovo or draw
87%
Kosovo or Montenegro
81%
Draw or Montenegro
32%

Winning margin

Kosovo wins by 2+
45%
Montenegro wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Kosovo 1+ goals
89%
Kosovo 2+ goals
65%
Kosovo 3+ goals
39%
Montenegro 1+ goals
59%
Montenegro 2+ goals
22%
Montenegro 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Kosovo (draw refunded)
84%
Montenegro (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kosovo at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

Montenegro away — creates 0.25, concedes 3.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kosovo attack 1.25 + Montenegro defence 3.25 → ÷2 → 2.25

Montenegro attack 0.25 + Kosovo defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Kosovo scores more
68%
level
19%
Montenegro scores more
13%

Kosovo at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Kosovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9
B. CelinaKosovoKosovo · M
8.4

Match Events

7'
Vedat Muriqi
7'
Vladimir Jovović
10'
A. Rrahmani↳ B. Celina
15'
M. Mijatović← D. Petković
16'
Aleksandar Šćekić
34'
V. Muriqi
46'
F. Bećiraj← N. Kosović
74'
M. Janković← V. Jovović
82'
A. Rashkaj← H. Shala
85'
Mergim Vojvoda
85'
Nikola Vukčević
89'
E. Zhegrova← M. Vojvoda
90'
Benjamin Kololli
90'
Marko Janković
90+3'
F. Hasani← B. Celina

Possession

50%Kosovo

Shots

22Kosovo

Pass accuracy

50%Kosovo

Statistics

KosovoMontenegro
Overview
50%Possession50%
22Total Shots7
6Corners4
23Fouls16
Shots
22Total Shots7
7On Target4
10Off Target3
5Blocked0
18Inside Box6
4Outside Box1
Passing
50%Possession50%
431Total Passes433
342Accurate Passes342
79%Pass Accuracy79%
Goalkeeping
4Saves5
Discipline
23Fouls16
3Yellow Cards4
2Offsides1

Match Recap: Kosovo vs Montenegro

Kosovo beat Montenegro 2-0 in Euro Championship on October 14, 2019.

Goals: A. Rrahmani (10'), V. Muriqi (34').

Kosovo controlled possession (50%) and registered 22 shots to 7.

The match was played at Stadiumi Fadil Vokrri in Pristina.