Montenegro 0–2 Finland: Result & Stats

Montenegro

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Finland

B. Källman 53'

O. Antman 47'

9/26/2022

UEFA Nations League · League B - 6Stadion Pod Goricom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Montenegro52%

×Draw27%

Finland21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MontenegroExpected goals in this matchFinland

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

0.82

Montenegro

1.45

Finland

0.82

Montenegro creates 77% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 11 away

1.45

creates per match

0.64

1.00

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Montenegro

1.45

Finland

0.64

allows per match

Montenegro

1.00

Finland

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Montenegro+0.00on par

Finland+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Montenegro ↓

Finland →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Montenegro or draw

79%

Montenegro or Finland

73%

Draw or Finland

48%

Winning margin

Montenegro wins by 2+

26%

Finland wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Montenegro 1+ goals

77%

Montenegro 2+ goals

42%

Montenegro 3+ goals

18%

Finland 1+ goals

56%

Finland 2+ goals

20%

Finland 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Montenegro (draw refunded)

71%

Finland (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Montenegro at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.00 · 11 matches

Finland away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.45 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Montenegro attack 1.45 + Finland defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.45

Finland attack 0.64 + Montenegro defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Montenegro scores more

52%

level

27%

Finland scores more

21%

Montenegro at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Montenegro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

O. Antman

Finland · M

8.0

Match Events

9'

12'

17'

17'

17'

19'

24'

25'

S. Balić← R. Radunović

32'

D. Camaj← S. Hakšabanović

33'

A. Šćekić← S. Jovetić

46'

J. Pohjanpalo← L. Lingman

47'

O. Antman↳ T. Pukki

53'

B. Källman

63'

U. Đurđević← S. Mugoša

63'

M. Vukčević← V. Jovović

67'

Uroš Đurđević

74'

S. Hostikka← B. Källman

74'

M. Forss← T. Pukki

83'

Santeri Hostikka

89'

P. Soiri← O. Antman

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MontenegroFinland

Overview

31%Possession69%

7Total Shots14

3Corners8

10Fouls13

Shots

7Total Shots14

1On Target5

3Off Target4

3Blocked5

5Inside Box11

2Outside Box3

Passing

31%Possession69%

222Total Passes504

142Accurate Passes407

64%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

10Fouls13

6Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards0

1Offsides1