Finland 2–0 Montenegro: Result & Stats

Finland

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Montenegro

J. Pohjanpalo 37', 31'

6/7/2022

UEFA Nations League · League B - 2Helsinki Olympic Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Finland38%

×Draw31%

Montenegro31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FinlandExpected goals in this matchMontenegro

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.04

0.90

Finland

1.04

Montenegro

0.90

Finland creates 16% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 9 away

1.20

creates per match

0.89

0.90

allows per match

0.89

creates per match

Finland

1.20

Montenegro

0.89

allows per match

Finland

0.90

Montenegro

0.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Finland+0.00on par

Montenegro+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Finland ↓

Montenegro →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–113%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Finland or draw

69%

Finland or Montenegro

69%

Draw or Montenegro

62%

Winning margin

Finland wins by 2+

15%

Montenegro wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Finland 1+ goals

65%

Finland 2+ goals

28%

Finland 3+ goals

9%

Montenegro 1+ goals

59%

Montenegro 2+ goals

23%

Montenegro 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Finland (draw refunded)

55%

Montenegro (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Finland at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.90 · 10 matches

Montenegro away — creates 0.89, concedes 0.89 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Finland attack 1.20 + Montenegro defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.04

Montenegro attack 0.89 + Finland defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Finland scores more

38%

level

31%

Montenegro scores more

31%

Finland at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Finland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

J. Pohjanpalo

Finland · F

8.2

Match Events

31'

J. Pohjanpalo↳ T. Pukki

37'

J. Pohjanpalo↳ L. Lingman

46'

B. Sekulić← U. Đuranović

46'

D. Camaj← F. Bećiraj

46'

D. Božović← I. Vukotić

67'

M. Forss← T. Pukki

67'

R. Schüller← G. Kamara

67'

O. Valakari← R. Lod

67'

S. Hakšabanović← I. Vujačić

72'

Nikola Šipčić

78'

A. Marušić← V. Savićević

79'

N. Alho← A. Granlund

86'

S. Väisänen← R. Jensen

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FinlandMontenegro

Overview

59%Possession41%

6Total Shots6

7Corners2

13Fouls13

Shots

6Total Shots6

3On Target1

3Off Target4

0Blocked1

5Inside Box3

1Outside Box3

Passing

59%Possession41%

569Total Passes394

455Accurate Passes291

80%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

13Fouls13

0Yellow Cards1

2Offsides2