Montenegro 1–5 England: Result & Stats

Montenegro

FT

1 – 5

HT: 1 – 2

England

M. Vešović 17'

R. Sterling 80'

H. Kane 71'

R. Barkley 59', 38'

M. Keane 30'

3/25/2019

Euro Championship · Qualifying Round - 2Stadion Pod Goricom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Montenegro8%

×Draw16%

England76%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MontenegroExpected goals in this matchEngland

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.61

2.35

Montenegro

0.61

England

2.35

England creates 285% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 11 away

0.50

creates per match

2.45

2.25

allows per match

0.73

creates per match

Montenegro

0.50

England

2.45

allows per match

Montenegro

2.25

England

0.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Montenegro+0.00on par

England+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Montenegro ↓

England →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–112%

0–214%

0–311%

0–47%

1

1–03%

1–18%

1–29%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–01%

2–12%

2–23%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–00%

3–10%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (14%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Montenegro or draw

24%

Montenegro or England

84%

Draw or England

92%

Winning margin

Montenegro wins by 2+

2%

England wins by 2+

53%

Team goals

Montenegro 1+ goals

46%

Montenegro 2+ goals

13%

Montenegro 3+ goals

2%

England 1+ goals

90%

England 2+ goals

68%

England 3+ goals

41%

Draw no bet

Montenegro (draw refunded)

9%

England (draw refunded)

91%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Montenegro at home — creates 0.50, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

England away — creates 2.45, concedes 0.73 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Montenegro attack 0.50 + England defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.61

England attack 2.45 + Montenegro defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Montenegro scores more

8%

level

16%

England scores more

76%

England at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "England will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

R. Barkley

England · M

9.5

Match Events

17'

M. Vešović

30'

M. Keane↳ R. Barkley

38'

R. Barkley↳ C. Hudson-Odoi

52'

Ross Barkley

59'

R. Barkley

61'

M. Janković← F. Bećiraj

64'

J. Henderson← D. Alli

70'

A. Boljević← M. Vešović

71'

H. Kane↳ R. Sterling

74'

V. Jovović← M. Simić

80'

R. Sterling↳ J. Henderson

82'

J. Ward-Prowse← R. Barkley

83'

90'

90'

90'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MontenegroEngland

Overview

26%Possession74%

9Total Shots12

3Corners6

10Fouls14

Shots

9Total Shots12

2On Target6

2Off Target2

5Blocked4

4Inside Box10

5Outside Box2

Passing

26%Possession74%

251Total Passes697

182Accurate Passes627

73%Pass Accuracy90%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

10Fouls14

1Yellow Cards3

0Offsides1