England 7–0 Montenegro: Result & Stats

England

FT

7 – 0

HT: 5 – 0

Montenegro

T. Abraham 84'

A. Šofranac 66' (OG)

H. Kane 37', 24', 18'

M. Rashford 30'

A. Oxlade-Chamberlain 11'

11/14/2019

Euro Championship · Qualifying Round - 9Wembley Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

England91%

×Draw8%

Montenegro2%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EnglandExpected goals in this matchMontenegro

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.13

0.32

England

3.13

Montenegro

0.32

England creates 878% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 4 away

3.00

creates per match

0.25

0.38

allows per match

3.25

creates per match

England

3.00

Montenegro

0.25

allows per match

England

0.38

Montenegro

3.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

England+0.00on par

Montenegro+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No74
Yes26

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

England ↓

Montenegro →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–11%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–13%

1–21%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–016%

2–15%

2–21%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–017%

3–15%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–013%

4–14%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (17%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

43%57%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

England or draw

98%

England or Montenegro

92%

Draw or Montenegro

9%

Winning margin

England wins by 2+

74%

Montenegro wins by 2+

0%

Team goals

England 1+ goals

95%

England 2+ goals

81%

England 3+ goals

59%

Montenegro 1+ goals

27%

Montenegro 2+ goals

4%

Montenegro 3+ goals

0%

Draw no bet

England (draw refunded)

98%

Montenegro (draw refunded)

2%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

England at home — creates 3.00, concedes 0.38 · 8 matches

Montenegro away — creates 0.25, concedes 3.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

England attack 3.00 + Montenegro defence 3.25 → ÷2 → 3.13

Montenegro attack 0.25 + England defence 0.38 → ÷2 → 0.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 91%?"

England scores more

91%

level

8%

Montenegro scores more

2%

England at 91% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 91% does not mean "England will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3

B. Chilwell

England · D

9.2

Match Events

11'

A. Oxlade-Chamberlain↳ B. Chilwell

18'

24'

30'

33'

37'

46'

M. Raspopović← R. Radunović

56'

J. Maddison← A. Oxlade-Chamberlain

57'

T. Abraham← H. Kane

65'

M. Janković← V. Jovović

66'

A. ŠofranacOwn goal

70'

J. Gomez← M. Mount

74'

A. Boljević← S. Haksabanovic

84'

T. Abraham↳ J. Sancho

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

EnglandMontenegro

Overview

66%Possession34%

17Total Shots6

7Corners3

13Fouls6

Shots

17Total Shots6

11On Target2

3Off Target1

3Blocked3

14Inside Box4

3Outside Box2

Passing

66%Possession34%

672Total Passes349

610Accurate Passes275

91%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

Discipline

13Fouls6

0Yellow Cards1

2Offsides2