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Montenegro vs Czechia — Euro Championship 2024

Montenegro
Montenegro
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Czechia
Czechia
V. Darida 90+5' (pen)
L. Masopust 57'
T. Souček 54'
9/10/2019Euro ChampionshipEuro Championship · Qualifying Round - 6Stadion Pod Goricom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Montenegro21%
×Draw23%
Czechia55%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Montenegro
1.00
Czechia
1.77

Czechia creates 77% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 10 away

creates per match

Montenegro
0.50
Czechia
1.30

allows per match

Montenegro
2.25
Czechia
1.50

finishing

Montenegro+0.00on par
Czechia+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Montenegro ↓

Czechia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–111%
0–210%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Montenegro or draw
45%
Montenegro or Czechia
77%
Draw or Czechia
79%

Winning margin

Montenegro wins by 2+
8%
Czechia wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Montenegro 1+ goals
63%
Montenegro 2+ goals
26%
Montenegro 3+ goals
8%
Czechia 1+ goals
83%
Czechia 2+ goals
53%
Czechia 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Montenegro (draw refunded)
28%
Czechia (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Montenegro at home — creates 0.50, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

Czechia away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.50 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Montenegro attack 0.50 + Czechia defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.00

Czechia attack 1.30 + Montenegro defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Montenegro scores more
21%
level
23%
Czechia scores more
55%

Czechia at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Czechia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14
J. JanktoCzechiaCzechia · M
8.3

Match Events

46'
J. Brabec← M. Suchý
53'
Risto Radunović
54'
T. Souček↳ J. Jankto
57'
L. Masopust↳ J. Jankto
68'
M. Bakić← N. Vukčević
73'
V. Savićević← N. Kosović
73'
F. Bećiraj← R. Radunović
74'
Adam Marušić
75'
Jakub Jankto
77'
J. Kopic← L. Masopust
82'
Tomáš Souček
90+2'
M. Krmenčík← P. Schick
90+5'
V. DaridaPenalty

Possession

47%Montenegro

Shots

8Montenegro

Pass accuracy

50%Montenegro

Statistics

MontenegroCzechia
Overview
47%Possession53%
8Total Shots17
2Corners10
12Fouls33
Shots
8Total Shots17
3On Target8
3Off Target6
2Blocked3
7Inside Box8
1Outside Box9
Passing
47%Possession53%
362Total Passes393
281Accurate Passes312
78%Pass Accuracy79%
Goalkeeping
5Saves3
Discipline
12Fouls33
2Yellow Cards2
2Offsides1

Euro Championship: Montenegro 0–3 Czechia

Czechia beat Montenegro 3-0 in Euro Championship on September 10, 2019.

Goals: T. Souček (54'), L. Masopust (57'), V. Darida (90+5' pen).

Czechia controlled possession (53%) and registered 17 shots to 8.

The match was played at Stadion Pod Goricom in Podgorica.