Czechia 3–0 Montenegro: Result & Stats

Czechia

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Montenegro

P. Schick 82' (pen)

B. Kopitović 49' (OG)

J. Jankto 18'

6/10/2019

Euro Championship · Qualifying Round - 4Andrův stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Czechia72%

×Draw17%

Montenegro11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CzechiaExpected goals in this matchMontenegro

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.34

0.79

Czechia

2.34

Montenegro

0.79

Czechia creates 196% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 4 away

1.44

creates per match

0.25

1.33

allows per match

3.25

creates per match

Czechia

1.44

Montenegro

0.25

allows per match

Czechia

1.33

Montenegro

3.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Czechia+0.00on par

Montenegro+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Czechia ↓

Montenegro →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–18%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–14%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Czechia or draw

89%

Czechia or Montenegro

83%

Draw or Montenegro

28%

Winning margin

Czechia wins by 2+

48%

Montenegro wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Czechia 1+ goals

90%

Czechia 2+ goals

67%

Czechia 3+ goals

41%

Montenegro 1+ goals

55%

Montenegro 2+ goals

19%

Montenegro 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Czechia (draw refunded)

87%

Montenegro (draw refunded)

13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Czechia at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.33 · 9 matches

Montenegro away — creates 0.25, concedes 3.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Czechia attack 1.44 + Montenegro defence 3.25 → ÷2 → 2.34

Montenegro attack 0.25 + Czechia defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Czechia scores more

72%

level

17%

Montenegro scores more

11%

Czechia at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Czechia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

P. Schick

Czechia · F

8.4

Match Events

14'

Filip Novák

15'

Marko Bakić

18'

J. Jankto↳ P. Kadeřábek

21'

Marek Suchý

23'

Patrik Schick

39'

J. Kopic← L. Masopust

49'

B. KopitovićOwn goal

60'

M. Janković← A. Marušić

62'

Igor Vujačić

67'

V. Savićević← N. Vukčević

74'

L. Krejčí← J. Jankto

80'

Marko Vešović

82'

P. SchickPenalty

85'

F. Bećiraj← S. Mugoša

88'

L. Kozák← P. Schick

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CzechiaMontenegro

Overview

50%Possession50%

15Total Shots9

8Corners6

13Fouls10

Shots

15Total Shots9

5On Target3

6Off Target1

4Blocked5

8Inside Box3

7Outside Box6

Passing

50%Possession50%

406Total Passes424

347Accurate Passes352

85%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

13Fouls10

3Yellow Cards3

0Offsides5