Montenegro U19 vs Bulgaria U19 — UEFA U19 Championship 2019
UEFA U19 Championship · Qualifying Round - 4Arslan Zeki Demirci Spor Kompleksi - Emir Hotels 2Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 4+ matches
Montenegro U1911%
Bulgaria U1970%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Bulgaria U19 creates 200% more chances
Season form · 5 home / 4 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over53
- Under47
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- No56
- Yes44
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Montenegro U19 ↓
Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Montenegro U19 at home — creates 0.40, concedes 3.20 · 5 matches
Bulgaria U19 away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Montenegro U19 attack 0.40 + Bulgaria U19 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.70
Bulgaria U19 attack 1.00 + Montenegro U19 defence 3.20 → ÷2 → 2.10
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 70%?"
Bulgaria U19 at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 70% does not mean "Bulgaria U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Montenegro U19 substitutes
Head to Head
2 previous meetings · small sampleMontenegro U19 host Bulgaria U19 on Wednesday, 13 November 2019 at 10:00. The match is part of the UEFA U19 Championship 2019/2020 season.
Match Recap: Montenegro U19 vs Bulgaria U19
Bulgaria U19 beat Montenegro U19 3-1 in UEFA U19 Championship on November 13, 2019.
Goals: D. Tonev (4'), N. Vujanović (14'), V. Nikolov (83' pen), F. Krastev (90+3').
The match was played at Arslan Zeki Demirci Spor Kompleksi - Emir Hotels 2 in Manavgat.