Bulgaria U19 0–1 Montenegro U19: Result & Stats

Bulgaria U19

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Montenegro U19

M. Krivokapić 62'

11/13/2021

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 6Stadion Albena-1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Bulgaria U1932%

×Draw32%

Montenegro U1936%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bulgaria U19Expected goals in this matchMontenegro U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.93

1.00

Bulgaria U19

0.93

Montenegro U19

1.00

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 15 away

0.38

creates per match

1.00

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Bulgaria U19

0.38

Montenegro U19

1.00

allows per match

Bulgaria U19

1.00

Montenegro U19

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bulgaria U19+0.00on par

Montenegro U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bulgaria U19 ↓

Montenegro U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–115%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–014%

1–114%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Bulgaria U19 or draw

64%

Bulgaria U19 or Montenegro U19

68%

Draw or Montenegro U19

68%

Winning margin

Bulgaria U19 wins by 2+

12%

Montenegro U19 wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Bulgaria U19 1+ goals

61%

Bulgaria U19 2+ goals

24%

Bulgaria U19 3+ goals

7%

Montenegro U19 1+ goals

63%

Montenegro U19 2+ goals

26%

Montenegro U19 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Bulgaria U19 (draw refunded)

47%

Montenegro U19 (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bulgaria U19 at home — creates 0.38, concedes 1.00 · 8 matches

Montenegro U19 away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.47 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bulgaria U19 attack 0.38 + Montenegro U19 defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 0.93

Montenegro U19 attack 1.00 + Bulgaria U19 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Bulgaria U19 scores more

32%

level

32%

Montenegro U19 scores more

36%

Montenegro U19 at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Montenegro U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

62'

M. Krivokapić

63'

M. Marinov← V. Nikolov

63'

P. Tsonchev← N. Iliev

67'

Y. Bornosuzov← S. Stoichkov

74'

D. Vuković← O. Bakić

77'

D. Dakić← V. Đukanović

83'

A. Ćetković← L. Mijović

83'

E. Rastoder← M. Krivokapić

Bulgaria

Montenegro

1

4

15

3

2

6

8

10

▼

Bakić

11

▼

Mijović

7

▼

Đukanović

9

⚽

▼

1

3

15

14

▼

16

5

2

18

▼

Stoichkov

10

▼

Iliev

7

Sorakov

17

Stoychev

Manager: A. Stoykov

63'▲M. Marinov←▼V. Nikolov

63'▲P. Tsonchev←▼N. Iliev

67'▲Y. Bornosuzov←▼S. Stoichkov

Bulgaria U19 substitutes

11Marinov21Tsonchev9Bornosuzov13Pemperski19Petrov12Slavkov22Trenchev8Dyulgerov

Manager: S. Drašković

74'▲D. Vuković←▼O. Bakić

77'▲D. Dakić←▼V. Đukanović

83'▲A. Ćetković←▼L. Mijović

83'▲E. Rastoder←▼M. Krivokapić

Montenegro U19 substitutes

18Vuković16Dakić14Ćetković17Rastoder12Spahić23Vukotić19Mugoša20Radojičić5Vukotić

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification: Bulgaria U19 0–1 Montenegro U19

Montenegro U19 beat Bulgaria U19 1-0 in UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification on November 13, 2021.

Goals: M. Krivokapić (62').

The match was played at Stadion Albena-1 in Albena.

Bulgaria U19 vs Montenegro U19 — UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification 2022

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification: Bulgaria U19 0–1 Montenegro U19