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Montehermoso vs Miajadas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 2019

Montehermoso
Montehermoso
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Miajadas
Miajadas
1/22/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 14Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 17Campo de Fútbol CP Montehermoso

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Montehermoso40%
×Draw27%
Miajadas33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Montehermoso
1.35
Miajadas
1.20

Montehermoso creates 13% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 57 away

creates per match

Montehermoso
1.24
Miajadas
0.77

allows per match

Montehermoso
1.63
Miajadas
1.46

finishing

Montehermoso+0.00on par
Miajadas+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Montehermoso ↓

Miajadas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Montehermoso or draw
67%
Montehermoso or Miajadas
73%
Draw or Miajadas
60%

Winning margin

Montehermoso wins by 2+
18%
Miajadas wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Montehermoso 1+ goals
74%
Montehermoso 2+ goals
39%
Montehermoso 3+ goals
15%
Miajadas 1+ goals
70%
Miajadas 2+ goals
34%
Miajadas 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Montehermoso (draw refunded)
55%
Miajadas (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Montehermoso at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.63 · 49 matches

Miajadas away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.46 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Montehermoso attack 1.24 + Miajadas defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.35

Miajadas attack 0.77 + Montehermoso defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Montehermoso scores more
40%
level
27%
Miajadas scores more
33%

Montehermoso at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Montehermoso will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Montehermoso vs Miajadas

Miajadas beat Montehermoso 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 on January 22, 2023.

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol CP Montehermoso in Montehermoso.