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Miajadas vs Montehermoso — Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 2019

Miajadas
Miajadas
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Montehermoso
Montehermoso
9/18/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 14Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 2Estadio Municipal de Miajadas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Miajadas53%
×Draw25%
Montehermoso22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Miajadas
1.60
Montehermoso
0.94

Miajadas creates 70% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 49 away

creates per match

Miajadas
1.13
Montehermoso
0.55

allows per match

Miajadas
1.32
Montehermoso
2.08

finishing

Miajadas+0.00on par
Montehermoso+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Miajadas ↓

Montehermoso →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Miajadas or draw
78%
Miajadas or Montehermoso
75%
Draw or Montehermoso
47%

Winning margin

Miajadas wins by 2+
28%
Montehermoso wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Miajadas 1+ goals
80%
Miajadas 2+ goals
47%
Miajadas 3+ goals
22%
Montehermoso 1+ goals
61%
Montehermoso 2+ goals
24%
Montehermoso 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Miajadas (draw refunded)
70%
Montehermoso (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Miajadas at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.32 · 56 matches

Montehermoso away — creates 0.55, concedes 2.08 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Miajadas attack 1.13 + Montehermoso defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.60

Montehermoso attack 0.55 + Miajadas defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Miajadas scores more
53%
level
25%
Montehermoso scores more
22%

Miajadas at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Miajadas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Miajadas vs Montehermoso

Miajadas and Montehermoso drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 on September 18, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Miajadas in Miajadas.