Montehermoso 1–1 CD Coria: Result & Stats

Montehermoso

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

CD Coria

3/3/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 24Campo de Fútbol CP Montehermoso

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Montehermoso23%

×Draw26%

CD Coria51%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MontehermosoExpected goals in this matchCD Coria

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.90

1.50

Montehermoso

0.90

CD Coria

1.50

CD Coria creates 67% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 45 away

1.24

creates per match

1.38

1.63

allows per match

0.56

creates per match

Montehermoso

1.24

CD Coria

1.38

allows per match

Montehermoso

1.63

CD Coria

0.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Montehermoso+0.00on par

CD Coria+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Montehermoso ↓

CD Coria →

0–09%

0–114%

0–210%

0–35%

0–42%

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2–04%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Montehermoso or draw

49%

Montehermoso or CD Coria

74%

Draw or CD Coria

77%

Winning margin

Montehermoso wins by 2+

CD Coria wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Montehermoso 1+ goals

59%

Montehermoso 2+ goals

23%

Montehermoso 3+ goals

CD Coria 1+ goals

78%

CD Coria 2+ goals

44%

CD Coria 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Montehermoso (draw refunded)

31%

CD Coria (draw refunded)

69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Montehermoso at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.63 · 49 matches

CD Coria away — creates 1.38, concedes 0.56 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Montehermoso attack 1.24 + CD Coria defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 0.90

CD Coria attack 1.38 + Montehermoso defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 51%?"

Montehermoso scores more

23%

level

26%

CD Coria scores more

51%

CD Coria at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "CD Coria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff