CD Coria 1–1 Montehermoso: Result & Stats

CD Coria

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Montehermoso

10/15/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 7Estadio La Isla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

CD Coria71%

×Draw19%

Montehermoso10%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CD CoriaExpected goals in this matchMontehermoso

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.11

0.66

CD Coria

2.11

Montehermoso

0.66

CD Coria creates 220% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 49 away

2.14

creates per match

0.55

0.77

allows per match

2.08

creates per match

CD Coria

2.14

Montehermoso

0.55

allows per match

CD Coria

0.77

Montehermoso

2.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CD Coria+0.00on par

Montehermoso+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CD Coria ↓

Montehermoso →

0–06%

0–14%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1–013%

1–19%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–010%

3–17%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4–05%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

CD Coria or draw

90%

CD Coria or Montehermoso

81%

Draw or Montehermoso

29%

Winning margin

CD Coria wins by 2+

46%

Montehermoso wins by 2+

Team goals

CD Coria 1+ goals

88%

CD Coria 2+ goals

62%

CD Coria 3+ goals

35%

Montehermoso 1+ goals

48%

Montehermoso 2+ goals

14%

Montehermoso 3+ goals

Draw no bet

CD Coria (draw refunded)

87%

Montehermoso (draw refunded)

13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

CD Coria at home — creates 2.14, concedes 0.77 · 43 matches

Montehermoso away — creates 0.55, concedes 2.08 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

CD Coria attack 2.14 + Montehermoso defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 2.11

Montehermoso attack 0.55 + CD Coria defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 71%?"

CD Coria scores more

71%

level

19%

Montehermoso scores more

10%

CD Coria at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "CD Coria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff