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Montehermoso vs Azuaga — Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 2019

Montehermoso
Montehermoso
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Azuaga
Azuaga
10/5/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 14Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 5Campo de Fútbol CP Montehermoso

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Montehermoso31%
×Draw26%
Azuaga43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Montehermoso
1.21
Azuaga
1.48

Azuaga creates 22% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 108 away

creates per match

Montehermoso
1.24
Azuaga
1.34

allows per match

Montehermoso
1.63
Azuaga
1.18

finishing

Montehermoso+0.00on par
Azuaga+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Montehermoso ↓

Azuaga →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Montehermoso or draw
57%
Montehermoso or Azuaga
74%
Draw or Azuaga
69%

Winning margin

Montehermoso wins by 2+
13%
Azuaga wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Montehermoso 1+ goals
70%
Montehermoso 2+ goals
34%
Montehermoso 3+ goals
12%
Azuaga 1+ goals
77%
Azuaga 2+ goals
43%
Azuaga 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Montehermoso (draw refunded)
42%
Azuaga (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Montehermoso at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.63 · 49 matches

Azuaga away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.18 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Montehermoso attack 1.24 + Azuaga defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.21

Azuaga attack 1.34 + Montehermoso defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Montehermoso scores more
31%
level
26%
Azuaga scores more
43%

Azuaga at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Azuaga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 14: Montehermoso 2–1 Azuaga

Montehermoso beat Azuaga 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 on October 5, 2025.

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol CP Montehermoso in Montehermoso.