Azuaga 3–0 Montehermoso: Result & Stats

Azuaga

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Montehermoso

4/2/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 27Estadio CD Azuaga

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Azuaga65%

×Draw22%

Montehermoso13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AzuagaExpected goals in this matchMontehermoso

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.85

0.69

Azuaga

1.85

Montehermoso

0.69

Azuaga creates 168% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 49 away

1.61

creates per match

0.55

0.83

allows per match

2.08

creates per match

Azuaga

1.61

Montehermoso

0.55

allows per match

Azuaga

0.83

Montehermoso

2.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Azuaga+0.00on par

Montehermoso+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Azuaga ↓

Montehermoso →

0–08%

0–15%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1–015%

1–110%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–08%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Azuaga or draw

87%

Azuaga or Montehermoso

78%

Draw or Montehermoso

35%

Winning margin

Azuaga wins by 2+

39%

Montehermoso wins by 2+

Team goals

Azuaga 1+ goals

84%

Azuaga 2+ goals

55%

Azuaga 3+ goals

28%

Montehermoso 1+ goals

50%

Montehermoso 2+ goals

15%

Montehermoso 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Azuaga (draw refunded)

83%

Montehermoso (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Azuaga at home — creates 1.61, concedes 0.83 · 109 matches

Montehermoso away — creates 0.55, concedes 2.08 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Azuaga attack 1.61 + Montehermoso defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.85

Montehermoso attack 0.55 + Azuaga defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 65%?"

Azuaga scores more

65%

level

22%

Montehermoso scores more

13%

Azuaga at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Azuaga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff