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Montedio Yamagata vs Iwaki — J2 League 2018

Montedio Yamagata
Montedio Yamagata
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Iwaki
Iwaki
7/14/2024J2 LeagueJ2 League · Round 24ND Soft Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Montedio Yamagata42%
×Draw26%
Iwaki32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Montedio Yamagata
1.42
Iwaki
1.19

Montedio Yamagata creates 19% more chances

Season form · 166 home / 59 away

creates per match

Montedio Yamagata
1.58
Iwaki
1.32

allows per match

Montedio Yamagata
1.05
Iwaki
1.25

finishing

Montedio Yamagata+0.00on par
Iwaki+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Montedio Yamagata ↓

Iwaki →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Montedio Yamagata or draw
68%
Montedio Yamagata or Iwaki
74%
Draw or Iwaki
58%

Winning margin

Montedio Yamagata wins by 2+
20%
Iwaki wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Montedio Yamagata 1+ goals
76%
Montedio Yamagata 2+ goals
41%
Montedio Yamagata 3+ goals
17%
Iwaki 1+ goals
70%
Iwaki 2+ goals
33%
Iwaki 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Montedio Yamagata (draw refunded)
57%
Iwaki (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Montedio Yamagata at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.05 · 166 matches

Iwaki away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.25 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Montedio Yamagata attack 1.58 + Iwaki defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.42

Iwaki attack 1.32 + Montedio Yamagata defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Montedio Yamagata scores more
42%
level
26%
Iwaki scores more
32%

Montedio Yamagata at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Montedio Yamagata will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

J2 League: Montedio Yamagata 1–2 Iwaki

Iwaki beat Montedio Yamagata 2-1 in J2 League on July 14, 2024.

The match was played at ND Soft Stadium in Tendo.