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Iwaki vs Montedio Yamagata — J2 League 2018

Iwaki
Iwaki
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Montedio Yamagata
Montedio Yamagata
11/4/2023J2 LeagueJ2 League · Round 41Iwaki Greenfield

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Iwaki34%
×Draw27%
Montedio Yamagata39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Iwaki
1.21
Montedio Yamagata
1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 59 home / 170 away

creates per match

Iwaki
1.27
Montedio Yamagata
1.27

allows per match

Iwaki
1.36
Montedio Yamagata
1.16

finishing

Iwaki+0.00on par
Montedio Yamagata+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Iwaki ↓

Montedio Yamagata →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Iwaki or draw
61%
Iwaki or Montedio Yamagata
73%
Draw or Montedio Yamagata
66%

Winning margin

Iwaki wins by 2+
14%
Montedio Yamagata wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Iwaki 1+ goals
70%
Iwaki 2+ goals
34%
Iwaki 3+ goals
12%
Montedio Yamagata 1+ goals
73%
Montedio Yamagata 2+ goals
38%
Montedio Yamagata 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Iwaki (draw refunded)
47%
Montedio Yamagata (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Iwaki at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.36 · 59 matches

Montedio Yamagata away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.16 · 170 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Iwaki attack 1.27 + Montedio Yamagata defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.21

Montedio Yamagata attack 1.27 + Iwaki defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Iwaki scores more
34%
level
27%
Montedio Yamagata scores more
39%

Montedio Yamagata at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Montedio Yamagata will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Iwaki vs Montedio Yamagata

Montedio Yamagata beat Iwaki 3-1 in J2 League on November 4, 2023.

The match was played at Iwaki Greenfield in Iwaki.