Montecchio Maggiore 2–3 Legnago Salus

Montecchio Maggiore

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 3

Legnago Salus

N. Visinoni 75'

L. Sarli 2'

B. Sambou 43'

M. Baradji 33'

D. Rocco 24'

12/11/2022

Serie D - Girone C · Group C - 15Stadio G. Corsaro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Montecchio Maggiore28%

×Draw25%

Legnago Salus47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Montecchio MaggioreExpected goals in this matchLegnago Salus

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

1.58

Montecchio Maggiore

1.15

Legnago Salus

1.58

Legnago Salus creates 37% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 48 away

1.13

creates per match

1.79

1.38

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Montecchio Maggiore

1.13

Legnago Salus

1.79

allows per match

Montecchio Maggiore

1.38

Legnago Salus

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Montecchio Maggiore+0.00on par

Legnago Salus+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Montecchio Maggiore ↓

Legnago Salus →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Montecchio Maggiore or draw

53%

Montecchio Maggiore or Legnago Salus

75%

Draw or Legnago Salus

72%

Winning margin

Montecchio Maggiore wins by 2+

11%

Legnago Salus wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Montecchio Maggiore 1+ goals

68%

Montecchio Maggiore 2+ goals

32%

Montecchio Maggiore 3+ goals

11%

Legnago Salus 1+ goals

79%

Legnago Salus 2+ goals

47%

Legnago Salus 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Montecchio Maggiore (draw refunded)

37%

Legnago Salus (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Montecchio Maggiore at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.38 · 53 matches

Legnago Salus away — creates 1.79, concedes 1.17 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Montecchio Maggiore attack 1.13 + Legnago Salus defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.15

Legnago Salus attack 1.79 + Montecchio Maggiore defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Montecchio Maggiore scores more

28%

level

25%

Legnago Salus scores more

47%

Legnago Salus at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Legnago Salus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'

L. Sarli

24'

D. Rocco

33'

M. Baradji

43'

B. Sambou

75'

N. Visinoni

84'

M. Bernardini

84'

M. Bernardini

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff