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Legnago Salus vs Montecchio Maggiore — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Legnago Salus
Legnago Salus
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Montecchio Maggiore
Montecchio Maggiore
I. Sinani 58'
M. Baradji 45+2'
N. Visinoni 53'
4/23/2023Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 32Stadio Mario Sandrini

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Legnago Salus45%
×Draw26%
Montecchio Maggiore29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Legnago Salus
1.44
Montecchio Maggiore
1.09

Legnago Salus creates 32% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 53 away

creates per match

Legnago Salus
1.44
Montecchio Maggiore
1.32

allows per match

Legnago Salus
0.86
Montecchio Maggiore
1.45

finishing

Legnago Salus+0.00on par
Montecchio Maggiore+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Legnago Salus ↓

Montecchio Maggiore →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Legnago Salus or draw
71%
Legnago Salus or Montecchio Maggiore
74%
Draw or Montecchio Maggiore
55%

Winning margin

Legnago Salus wins by 2+
22%
Montecchio Maggiore wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Legnago Salus 1+ goals
76%
Legnago Salus 2+ goals
42%
Legnago Salus 3+ goals
18%
Montecchio Maggiore 1+ goals
66%
Montecchio Maggiore 2+ goals
30%
Montecchio Maggiore 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Legnago Salus (draw refunded)
61%
Montecchio Maggiore (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Legnago Salus at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.86 · 50 matches

Montecchio Maggiore away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.45 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Legnago Salus attack 1.44 + Montecchio Maggiore defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.44

Montecchio Maggiore attack 1.32 + Legnago Salus defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Legnago Salus scores more
45%
level
26%
Montecchio Maggiore scores more
29%

Legnago Salus at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Legnago Salus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45+2'
M. Baradji
53'
N. Visinoni
58'
I. Sinani

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Legnago Salus vs Montecchio Maggiore

Legnago Salus beat Montecchio Maggiore 2-1 in Serie D - Girone C on April 23, 2023.

Goals: M. Baradji (45+2'), N. Visinoni (53'), I. Sinani (58').

The match was played at Stadio Mario Sandrini in Legnago.