Montecchio Maggiore 1–3 Dolomiti Bellunesi

Montecchio Maggiore

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 3

Dolomiti Bellunesi

3/23/2025

Serie D - Girone C · Group C - 32Stadio G. Corsaro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Montecchio Maggiore31%

×Draw26%

Dolomiti Bellunesi42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Montecchio MaggioreExpected goals in this matchDolomiti Bellunesi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

1.42

Montecchio Maggiore

1.18

Dolomiti Bellunesi

1.42

Dolomiti Bellunesi creates 20% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 70 away

1.13

creates per match

1.47

1.38

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Montecchio Maggiore

1.13

Dolomiti Bellunesi

1.47

allows per match

Montecchio Maggiore

1.38

Dolomiti Bellunesi

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Montecchio Maggiore+0.00on par

Dolomiti Bellunesi+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Montecchio Maggiore ↓

Dolomiti Bellunesi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–111%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Montecchio Maggiore or draw

58%

Montecchio Maggiore or Dolomiti Bellunesi

74%

Draw or Dolomiti Bellunesi

69%

Winning margin

Montecchio Maggiore wins by 2+

13%

Dolomiti Bellunesi wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Montecchio Maggiore 1+ goals

69%

Montecchio Maggiore 2+ goals

33%

Montecchio Maggiore 3+ goals

12%

Dolomiti Bellunesi 1+ goals

76%

Dolomiti Bellunesi 2+ goals

41%

Dolomiti Bellunesi 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Montecchio Maggiore (draw refunded)

42%

Dolomiti Bellunesi (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Montecchio Maggiore at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.38 · 53 matches

Dolomiti Bellunesi away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.23 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Montecchio Maggiore attack 1.13 + Dolomiti Bellunesi defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.18

Dolomiti Bellunesi attack 1.47 + Montecchio Maggiore defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Montecchio Maggiore scores more

31%

level

26%

Dolomiti Bellunesi scores more

42%

Dolomiti Bellunesi at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Dolomiti Bellunesi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff