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Dolomiti Bellunesi vs Montecchio Maggiore — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Dolomiti Bellunesi
Dolomiti Bellunesi
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Montecchio Maggiore
Montecchio Maggiore
G. Marangon 34'
M. Tardivo 29'
T. Erman 90+6' (pen)
11/10/2024Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 13Stadio Zugni Tauro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Dolomiti Bellunesi45%
×Draw25%
Montecchio Maggiore30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dolomiti Bellunesi
1.52
Montecchio Maggiore
1.20

Dolomiti Bellunesi creates 27% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 53 away

creates per match

Dolomiti Bellunesi
1.59
Montecchio Maggiore
1.32

allows per match

Dolomiti Bellunesi
1.07
Montecchio Maggiore
1.45

finishing

Dolomiti Bellunesi+0.00on par
Montecchio Maggiore+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dolomiti Bellunesi ↓

Montecchio Maggiore →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Dolomiti Bellunesi or draw
70%
Dolomiti Bellunesi or Montecchio Maggiore
75%
Draw or Montecchio Maggiore
55%

Winning margin

Dolomiti Bellunesi wins by 2+
22%
Montecchio Maggiore wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Dolomiti Bellunesi 1+ goals
78%
Dolomiti Bellunesi 2+ goals
45%
Dolomiti Bellunesi 3+ goals
20%
Montecchio Maggiore 1+ goals
70%
Montecchio Maggiore 2+ goals
34%
Montecchio Maggiore 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Dolomiti Bellunesi (draw refunded)
60%
Montecchio Maggiore (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dolomiti Bellunesi at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.07 · 70 matches

Montecchio Maggiore away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.45 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dolomiti Bellunesi attack 1.59 + Montecchio Maggiore defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.52

Montecchio Maggiore attack 1.32 + Dolomiti Bellunesi defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Dolomiti Bellunesi scores more
45%
level
25%
Montecchio Maggiore scores more
30%

Dolomiti Bellunesi at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Dolomiti Bellunesi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

29'
M. Tardivo
34'
G. Marangon
90+6'
T. ErmanPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone C: Dolomiti Bellunesi 2–1 Montecchio Maggiore

Dolomiti Bellunesi beat Montecchio Maggiore 2-1 in Serie D - Girone C on November 10, 2024.

Goals: M. Tardivo (29'), G. Marangon (34'), T. Erman (90+6' pen).

The match was played at Stadio Zugni Tauro in Feltre.