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Montecchio Maggiore vs Cjarlins Muzane — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Montecchio Maggiore
Montecchio Maggiore
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Cjarlins Muzane
Cjarlins Muzane
9/28/2024Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 5Stadio G. Corsaro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Montecchio Maggiore34%
×Draw27%
Cjarlins Muzane38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Montecchio Maggiore
1.18
Cjarlins Muzane
1.26

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 53 home / 101 away

creates per match

Montecchio Maggiore
1.13
Cjarlins Muzane
1.15

allows per match

Montecchio Maggiore
1.38
Cjarlins Muzane
1.23

finishing

Montecchio Maggiore+0.00on par
Cjarlins Muzane+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Montecchio Maggiore ↓

Cjarlins Muzane →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Montecchio Maggiore or draw
62%
Montecchio Maggiore or Cjarlins Muzane
73%
Draw or Cjarlins Muzane
66%

Winning margin

Montecchio Maggiore wins by 2+
14%
Cjarlins Muzane wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Montecchio Maggiore 1+ goals
69%
Montecchio Maggiore 2+ goals
33%
Montecchio Maggiore 3+ goals
12%
Cjarlins Muzane 1+ goals
72%
Cjarlins Muzane 2+ goals
36%
Cjarlins Muzane 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Montecchio Maggiore (draw refunded)
47%
Cjarlins Muzane (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Montecchio Maggiore at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.38 · 53 matches

Cjarlins Muzane away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.23 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Montecchio Maggiore attack 1.13 + Cjarlins Muzane defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.18

Cjarlins Muzane attack 1.15 + Montecchio Maggiore defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Montecchio Maggiore scores more
34%
level
27%
Cjarlins Muzane scores more
38%

Cjarlins Muzane at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Cjarlins Muzane will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Montecchio Maggiore vs Cjarlins Muzane

Cjarlins Muzane beat Montecchio Maggiore 2-1 in Serie D - Girone C on September 28, 2024.

The match was played at Stadio G. Corsaro in Montecchio Maggiore.