Cjarlins Muzane 1–1 Montecchio Maggiore

Cjarlins Muzane

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Montecchio Maggiore

5/7/2023

Serie D - Girone C · Group C - 34Stadio Via Rizzolo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Cjarlins Muzane40%

×Draw26%

Montecchio Maggiore34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cjarlins MuzaneExpected goals in this matchMontecchio Maggiore

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.29

Cjarlins Muzane

1.41

Montecchio Maggiore

1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 101 home / 53 away

1.37

creates per match

1.32

1.26

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Cjarlins Muzane

1.37

Montecchio Maggiore

1.32

allows per match

Cjarlins Muzane

1.26

Montecchio Maggiore

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cjarlins Muzane+0.00on par

Montecchio Maggiore+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cjarlins Muzane ↓

Montecchio Maggiore →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Cjarlins Muzane or draw

66%

Cjarlins Muzane or Montecchio Maggiore

74%

Draw or Montecchio Maggiore

60%

Winning margin

Cjarlins Muzane wins by 2+

19%

Montecchio Maggiore wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Cjarlins Muzane 1+ goals

76%

Cjarlins Muzane 2+ goals

41%

Cjarlins Muzane 3+ goals

17%

Montecchio Maggiore 1+ goals

72%

Montecchio Maggiore 2+ goals

37%

Montecchio Maggiore 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Cjarlins Muzane (draw refunded)

54%

Montecchio Maggiore (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cjarlins Muzane at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.26 · 101 matches

Montecchio Maggiore away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.45 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cjarlins Muzane attack 1.37 + Montecchio Maggiore defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.41

Montecchio Maggiore attack 1.32 + Cjarlins Muzane defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Cjarlins Muzane scores more

40%

level

26%

Montecchio Maggiore scores more

34%

Cjarlins Muzane at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Cjarlins Muzane will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff