Montecchio Maggiore 3–1 Atletico Castegnato

Montecchio Maggiore

FT

3 – 1

HT: 3 – 1

Atletico Castegnato

12/10/2023

Serie D - Girone C · Group C - 15Stadio G. Corsaro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Montecchio Maggiore42%

×Draw26%

Atletico Castegnato32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Montecchio MaggioreExpected goals in this matchAtletico Castegnato

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.22

Montecchio Maggiore

1.42

Atletico Castegnato

1.22

Montecchio Maggiore creates 16% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 17 away

1.13

creates per match

1.06

1.38

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Montecchio Maggiore

1.13

Atletico Castegnato

1.06

allows per match

Montecchio Maggiore

1.38

Atletico Castegnato

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Montecchio Maggiore+0.00on par

Atletico Castegnato+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Montecchio Maggiore ↓

Atletico Castegnato →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Montecchio Maggiore or draw

68%

Montecchio Maggiore or Atletico Castegnato

74%

Draw or Atletico Castegnato

58%

Winning margin

Montecchio Maggiore wins by 2+

20%

Atletico Castegnato wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Montecchio Maggiore 1+ goals

76%

Montecchio Maggiore 2+ goals

41%

Montecchio Maggiore 3+ goals

17%

Atletico Castegnato 1+ goals

70%

Atletico Castegnato 2+ goals

34%

Atletico Castegnato 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Montecchio Maggiore (draw refunded)

56%

Atletico Castegnato (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Montecchio Maggiore at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.38 · 53 matches

Atletico Castegnato away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.71 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Montecchio Maggiore attack 1.13 + Atletico Castegnato defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.42

Atletico Castegnato attack 1.06 + Montecchio Maggiore defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Montecchio Maggiore scores more

42%

level

26%

Atletico Castegnato scores more

32%

Montecchio Maggiore at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Montecchio Maggiore will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff