Atletico Castegnato 1–4 Montecchio Maggiore

Atletico Castegnato

FT

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 1

Montecchio Maggiore

A. Bertazzoli 79'

M. Pavan 90+3'

L. Sperti 74'

Unknown 52' (OG)

G. Zanella 36'

4/21/2024

Serie D - Girone C · Group C - 32Stadio Comunale Castegnato

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Atletico Castegnato34%

×Draw25%

Montecchio Maggiore42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atletico CastegnatoExpected goals in this matchMontecchio Maggiore

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.52

Atletico Castegnato

1.34

Montecchio Maggiore

1.52

Montecchio Maggiore creates 13% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 53 away

1.24

creates per match

1.32

1.71

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Atletico Castegnato

1.24

Montecchio Maggiore

1.32

allows per match

Atletico Castegnato

1.71

Montecchio Maggiore

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atletico Castegnato+0.00on par

Montecchio Maggiore+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Castegnato ↓

Montecchio Maggiore →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Atletico Castegnato or draw

58%

Atletico Castegnato or Montecchio Maggiore

75%

Draw or Montecchio Maggiore

66%

Winning margin

Atletico Castegnato wins by 2+

15%

Montecchio Maggiore wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Atletico Castegnato 1+ goals

74%

Atletico Castegnato 2+ goals

39%

Atletico Castegnato 3+ goals

15%

Montecchio Maggiore 1+ goals

78%

Montecchio Maggiore 2+ goals

45%

Montecchio Maggiore 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Atletico Castegnato (draw refunded)

45%

Montecchio Maggiore (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Castegnato at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.71 · 17 matches

Montecchio Maggiore away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.45 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Castegnato attack 1.24 + Montecchio Maggiore defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.34

Montecchio Maggiore attack 1.32 + Atletico Castegnato defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Atletico Castegnato scores more

34%

level

25%

Montecchio Maggiore scores more

42%

Montecchio Maggiore at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Montecchio Maggiore will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

36'

G. Zanella

52'

Own goal

74'

L. Sperti

79'

A. Bertazzoli

90+3'

M. Pavan

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff