Montecasillas 1–2 CAP Ciudad de Murcia

Montecasillas

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

CAP Ciudad de Murcia

Juan Herrero 17'

José Rivas 57'

Pablo Guillen 45'

1/20/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 17Campo De Fútbol Montecasillas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Montecasillas30%

×Draw24%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MontecasillasExpected goals in this matchCAP Ciudad de Murcia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.66

Montecasillas

1.29

CAP Ciudad de Murcia

1.66

CAP Ciudad de Murcia creates 29% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 78 away

1.12

creates per match

0.85

2.47

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Montecasillas

1.12

CAP Ciudad de Murcia

0.85

allows per match

Montecasillas

2.47

CAP Ciudad de Murcia

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Montecasillas+0.00on par

CAP Ciudad de Murcia+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Montecasillas ↓

CAP Ciudad de Murcia →

0–05%

0–19%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Montecasillas or draw

54%

Montecasillas or CAP Ciudad de Murcia

76%

Draw or CAP Ciudad de Murcia

70%

Winning margin

Montecasillas wins by 2+

13%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Montecasillas 1+ goals

72%

Montecasillas 2+ goals

37%

Montecasillas 3+ goals

14%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia 1+ goals

81%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia 2+ goals

49%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Montecasillas (draw refunded)

39%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Montecasillas at home — creates 1.12, concedes 2.47 · 17 matches

CAP Ciudad de Murcia away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.45 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Montecasillas attack 1.12 + CAP Ciudad de Murcia defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.29

CAP Ciudad de Murcia attack 0.85 + Montecasillas defence 2.47 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 46%?"

Montecasillas scores more

30%

level

24%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia scores more

46%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "CAP Ciudad de Murcia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'

Juan Herrero

42'

Alejandro Sánchez← Juan Herrero

45'

Pablo Guillen

57'

A. Hassi← Fran Martínez

57'

José Rivas

61'

Achraf← Enrique Cañabate

61'

Alejandro Ródenas← Iker Castellanos

61'

S. Lengua← Ismael Riquelme

75'

Adrián Velasco← Dani Casado

82'

Christian Sellés← Juan Pérez

83'

Juan Vera← Fernando Carmona

Montecasillas

CAP

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Francisco Cuenca

42'▲Alejandro Sánchez←▼Juan Herrero

61'▲Achraf←▼Enrique Cañabate

61'▲Alejandro Ródenas←▼Iker Castellanos

61'▲S. Lengua←▼Ismael Riquelme

82'▲Christian Sellés←▼Juan Pérez

Montecasillas substitutes

SánchezAchrafRódenasLenguaSellés

Manager: Francisco Lorca

57'▲A. Hassi←▼Fran Martínez

75'▲Adrián Velasco←▼Dani Casado

83'▲Juan Vera←▼Fernando Carmona

CAP Ciudad de Murcia substitutes

HassiVelascoVera

Match Recap: Montecasillas vs CAP Ciudad de Murcia

CAP Ciudad de Murcia beat Montecasillas 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on January 20, 2024.

Goals: Juan Herrero (17'), Pablo Guillen (45'), José Rivas (57').

The match was played at Campo De Fútbol Montecasillas in Murcia.

Montecasillas vs CAP Ciudad de Murcia — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Montecasillas vs CAP Ciudad de Murcia