CAP Ciudad de Murcia 0–1 Montecasillas

CAP Ciudad de Murcia

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Montecasillas

Sergio Bastida 47'

5/12/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 34Estadio José Barnés

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

CAP Ciudad de Murcia62%

×Draw22%

Montecasillas17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CAP Ciudad de MurciaExpected goals in this matchMontecasillas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.92

0.88

CAP Ciudad de Murcia

1.92

Montecasillas

0.88

CAP Ciudad de Murcia creates 118% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 17 away

1.03

creates per match

0.71

1.04

allows per match

2.82

creates per match

CAP Ciudad de Murcia

1.03

Montecasillas

0.71

allows per match

CAP Ciudad de Murcia

1.04

Montecasillas

2.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CAP Ciudad de Murcia+0.00on par

Montecasillas+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CAP Ciudad de Murcia ↓

Montecasillas →

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–012%

1–110%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

CAP Ciudad de Murcia or draw

83%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia or Montecasillas

78%

Draw or Montecasillas

38%

Winning margin

CAP Ciudad de Murcia wins by 2+

37%

Montecasillas wins by 2+

Team goals

CAP Ciudad de Murcia 1+ goals

85%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia 2+ goals

57%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia 3+ goals

30%

Montecasillas 1+ goals

59%

Montecasillas 2+ goals

22%

Montecasillas 3+ goals

Draw no bet

CAP Ciudad de Murcia (draw refunded)

79%

Montecasillas (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

CAP Ciudad de Murcia at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.04 · 78 matches

Montecasillas away — creates 0.71, concedes 2.82 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

CAP Ciudad de Murcia attack 1.03 + Montecasillas defence 2.82 → ÷2 → 1.92

Montecasillas attack 0.71 + CAP Ciudad de Murcia defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 62%?"

CAP Ciudad de Murcia scores more

62%

level

22%

Montecasillas scores more

17%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "CAP Ciudad de Murcia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

Iker Checa← Pablo Aznar

46'

Santiago Fuentes← Juan Pérez

47'

Sergio Bastida

53'

A. Hassi← Lorenzo Lopez

53'

Fernando Carmona← José Rivas

61'

Hamza Agnaou← Pablo Guillen

61'

Fran Conesa← Juan Vera

62'

Iker Castellanos← Juan Herrero

66'

Sergi Martinez← S. Lengua

76'

Alejandro Ródenas← Sergio Bastida

76'

Enrique Cañabate← Fran Cuenca

CAP

Montecasillas

▼

Pérez

▼

Herrero

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Francisco Lorca

46'▲Iker Checa←▼Pablo Aznar

53'▲A. Hassi←▼Lorenzo Lopez

53'▲Fernando Carmona←▼José Rivas

61'▲Hamza Agnaou←▼Pablo Guillen

61'▲Fran Conesa←▼Juan Vera

CAP Ciudad de Murcia substitutes

ChecaHassiCarmonaAgnaouConesa

46'▲Santiago Fuentes←▼Juan Pérez

62'▲Iker Castellanos←▼Juan Herrero

66'▲Sergi Martinez←▼S. Lengua

76'▲Alejandro Ródenas←▼Sergio Bastida

76'▲Enrique Cañabate←▼Fran Cuenca

Montecasillas substitutes

FuentesCastellanosMartinezRódenasCañabate

Match Recap: CAP Ciudad de Murcia vs Montecasillas

Montecasillas beat CAP Ciudad de Murcia 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on May 12, 2024.

Goals: Sergio Bastida (47').

The match was played at Estadio José Barnés in Murcia.

CAP Ciudad de Murcia vs Montecasillas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: CAP Ciudad de Murcia vs Montecasillas