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Montecasillas vs Atlético Pulpileño — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Montecasillas
Montecasillas
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 3
Atlético Pulpileño
Atlético Pulpileño
2/24/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 22Campo De Fútbol Montecasillas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Montecasillas20%
×Draw23%
Atlético Pulpileño57%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Montecasillas
0.99
Atlético Pulpileño
1.81

Atlético Pulpileño creates 83% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 93 away

creates per match

Montecasillas
1.12
Atlético Pulpileño
1.16

allows per match

Montecasillas
2.47
Atlético Pulpileño
0.85

finishing

Montecasillas+0.00on par
Atlético Pulpileño+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Montecasillas ↓

Atlético Pulpileño →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–111%
0–210%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Montecasillas or draw
43%
Montecasillas or Atlético Pulpileño
77%
Draw or Atlético Pulpileño
80%

Winning margin

Montecasillas wins by 2+
7%
Atlético Pulpileño wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Montecasillas 1+ goals
63%
Montecasillas 2+ goals
26%
Montecasillas 3+ goals
8%
Atlético Pulpileño 1+ goals
84%
Atlético Pulpileño 2+ goals
54%
Atlético Pulpileño 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Montecasillas (draw refunded)
27%
Atlético Pulpileño (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Montecasillas at home — creates 1.12, concedes 2.47 · 17 matches

Atlético Pulpileño away — creates 1.16, concedes 0.85 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Montecasillas attack 1.12 + Atlético Pulpileño defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.99

Atlético Pulpileño attack 1.16 + Montecasillas defence 2.47 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Montecasillas scores more
20%
level
23%
Atlético Pulpileño scores more
57%

Atlético Pulpileño at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Atlético Pulpileño will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13: Montecasillas 0–4 Atlético Pulpileño

Atlético Pulpileño beat Montecasillas 4-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on February 24, 2024.

The match was played at Campo De Fútbol Montecasillas in Murcia.