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Atlético Pulpileño vs Montecasillas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Atlético Pulpileño
Atlético Pulpileño
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Montecasillas
Montecasillas
10/8/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 5Estadio San Miguel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Atlético Pulpileño70%
×Draw19%
Montecasillas11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Pulpileño
2.09
Montecasillas
0.69

Atlético Pulpileño creates 203% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 17 away

creates per match

Atlético Pulpileño
1.37
Montecasillas
0.71

allows per match

Atlético Pulpileño
0.66
Montecasillas
2.82

finishing

Atlético Pulpileño+0.00on par
Montecasillas+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Pulpileño ↓

Montecasillas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Atlético Pulpileño or draw
89%
Atlético Pulpileño or Montecasillas
81%
Draw or Montecasillas
30%

Winning margin

Atlético Pulpileño wins by 2+
45%
Montecasillas wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Atlético Pulpileño 1+ goals
88%
Atlético Pulpileño 2+ goals
62%
Atlético Pulpileño 3+ goals
34%
Montecasillas 1+ goals
50%
Montecasillas 2+ goals
15%
Montecasillas 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Atlético Pulpileño (draw refunded)
86%
Montecasillas (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Pulpileño at home — creates 1.37, concedes 0.66 · 93 matches

Montecasillas away — creates 0.71, concedes 2.82 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Pulpileño attack 1.37 + Montecasillas defence 2.82 → ÷2 → 2.09

Montecasillas attack 0.71 + Atlético Pulpileño defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Atlético Pulpileño scores more
70%
level
19%
Montecasillas scores more
11%

Atlético Pulpileño at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Atlético Pulpileño will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Atlético Pulpileño vs Montecasillas

Atlético Pulpileño beat Montecasillas 4-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on October 8, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio San Miguel in Pulpí.