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Montebelluna vs Legnago Salus — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Montebelluna
Montebelluna
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Legnago Salus
Legnago Salus
N. Fasan 90'
D. Rocco 90+5'
M. Baradji 65'
D. Gasparetto 53'
1/8/2023Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 18Stadio San Vigilio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Montebelluna27%
×Draw25%
Legnago Salus48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Montebelluna
1.17
Legnago Salus
1.63

Legnago Salus creates 39% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 48 away

creates per match

Montebelluna
1.18
Legnago Salus
1.79

allows per match

Montebelluna
1.46
Legnago Salus
1.17

finishing

Montebelluna+0.00on par
Legnago Salus+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Montebelluna ↓

Legnago Salus →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Montebelluna or draw
52%
Montebelluna or Legnago Salus
75%
Draw or Legnago Salus
73%

Winning margin

Montebelluna wins by 2+
11%
Legnago Salus wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Montebelluna 1+ goals
69%
Montebelluna 2+ goals
33%
Montebelluna 3+ goals
11%
Legnago Salus 1+ goals
80%
Legnago Salus 2+ goals
48%
Legnago Salus 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Montebelluna (draw refunded)
36%
Legnago Salus (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Montebelluna at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.46 · 65 matches

Legnago Salus away — creates 1.79, concedes 1.17 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Montebelluna attack 1.18 + Legnago Salus defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.17

Legnago Salus attack 1.79 + Montebelluna defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Montebelluna scores more
27%
level
25%
Legnago Salus scores more
48%

Legnago Salus at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Legnago Salus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

53'
D. Gasparetto
65'
M. Baradji
90'
N. Fasan
90+5'
D. Rocco

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone C: Montebelluna 1–3 Legnago Salus

Legnago Salus beat Montebelluna 3-1 in Serie D - Girone C on January 8, 2023.

Goals: D. Gasparetto (53'), M. Baradji (65'), N. Fasan (90'), D. Rocco (90+5').

The match was played at Stadio San Vigilio in Montebelluna.