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Legnago Salus vs Montebelluna — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Legnago Salus
Legnago Salus
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Montebelluna
Montebelluna
B. Sambou 44', 29'
9/4/2022Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 1Stadio Mario Sandrini

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Legnago Salus47%
×Draw26%
Montebelluna26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Legnago Salus
1.46
Montebelluna
1.02

Legnago Salus creates 43% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 64 away

creates per match

Legnago Salus
1.44
Montebelluna
1.19

allows per match

Legnago Salus
0.86
Montebelluna
1.47

finishing

Legnago Salus+0.00on par
Montebelluna+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Legnago Salus ↓

Montebelluna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Legnago Salus or draw
74%
Legnago Salus or Montebelluna
74%
Draw or Montebelluna
53%

Winning margin

Legnago Salus wins by 2+
23%
Montebelluna wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Legnago Salus 1+ goals
77%
Legnago Salus 2+ goals
43%
Legnago Salus 3+ goals
18%
Montebelluna 1+ goals
64%
Montebelluna 2+ goals
27%
Montebelluna 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Legnago Salus (draw refunded)
64%
Montebelluna (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Legnago Salus at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.86 · 50 matches

Montebelluna away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.47 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Legnago Salus attack 1.44 + Montebelluna defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.46

Montebelluna attack 1.19 + Legnago Salus defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Legnago Salus scores more
47%
level
26%
Montebelluna scores more
26%

Legnago Salus at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Legnago Salus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

29'
B. Sambou
44'
B. Sambou

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Legnago Salus vs Montebelluna

Legnago Salus beat Montebelluna 2-0 in Serie D - Girone C on September 4, 2022.

Goals: B. Sambou (29', 44').

The match was played at Stadio Mario Sandrini in Legnago.