Montebelluna 2–2 Campodarsego: Result & Stats

Montebelluna

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Campodarsego

3/6/2022

Serie D - Girone C · Group C - 23Stadio San Vigilio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Montebelluna30%

×Draw27%

Campodarsego42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MontebellunaExpected goals in this matchCampodarsego

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.08

1.33

Montebelluna

1.08

Campodarsego

1.33

Campodarsego creates 23% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 101 away

1.18

creates per match

1.20

1.46

allows per match

0.99

creates per match

Montebelluna

1.18

Campodarsego

1.20

allows per match

Montebelluna

1.46

Campodarsego

0.99

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Montebelluna+0.00on par

Campodarsego+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Montebelluna ↓

Campodarsego →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–112%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Montebelluna or draw

58%

Montebelluna or Campodarsego

73%

Draw or Campodarsego

70%

Winning margin

Montebelluna wins by 2+

12%

Campodarsego wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Montebelluna 1+ goals

66%

Montebelluna 2+ goals

29%

Montebelluna 3+ goals

10%

Campodarsego 1+ goals

74%

Campodarsego 2+ goals

38%

Campodarsego 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Montebelluna (draw refunded)

42%

Campodarsego (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Montebelluna at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.46 · 65 matches

Campodarsego away — creates 1.20, concedes 0.99 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Montebelluna attack 1.18 + Campodarsego defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.08

Campodarsego attack 1.20 + Montebelluna defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Montebelluna scores more

30%

level

27%

Campodarsego scores more

42%

Campodarsego at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Campodarsego will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff