Campodarsego 4–0 Montebelluna: Result & Stats

Campodarsego

FT

4 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Montebelluna

4/23/2023

Serie D - Girone C · Group C - 32Centro Sportivo Il Gabbiano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Campodarsego47%

×Draw26%

Montebelluna27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CampodarsegoExpected goals in this matchMontebelluna

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.08

Campodarsego

1.50

Montebelluna

1.08

Campodarsego creates 39% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 64 away

1.52

creates per match

1.19

0.98

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Campodarsego

1.52

Montebelluna

1.19

allows per match

Campodarsego

0.98

Montebelluna

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Campodarsego+0.00on par

Montebelluna+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Campodarsego ↓

Montebelluna →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Campodarsego or draw

73%

Campodarsego or Montebelluna

74%

Draw or Montebelluna

53%

Winning margin

Campodarsego wins by 2+

23%

Montebelluna wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Campodarsego 1+ goals

78%

Campodarsego 2+ goals

44%

Campodarsego 3+ goals

19%

Montebelluna 1+ goals

66%

Montebelluna 2+ goals

29%

Montebelluna 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Campodarsego (draw refunded)

63%

Montebelluna (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Campodarsego at home — creates 1.52, concedes 0.98 · 100 matches

Montebelluna away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.47 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Campodarsego attack 1.52 + Montebelluna defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.50

Montebelluna attack 1.19 + Campodarsego defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Campodarsego scores more

47%

level

26%

Montebelluna scores more

27%

Campodarsego at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Campodarsego will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff