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Montebelluna vs Atletico Castegnato — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Montebelluna
Montebelluna
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Atletico Castegnato
Atletico Castegnato
Unknown 20'
3/28/2024Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 29Stadio San Vigilio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Montebelluna41%
×Draw26%
Atletico Castegnato33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Montebelluna
1.44
Atletico Castegnato
1.26

Montebelluna creates 14% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 17 away

creates per match

Montebelluna
1.18
Atletico Castegnato
1.06

allows per match

Montebelluna
1.46
Atletico Castegnato
1.71

finishing

Montebelluna+0.00on par
Atletico Castegnato+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Montebelluna ↓

Atletico Castegnato →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Montebelluna or draw
67%
Montebelluna or Atletico Castegnato
74%
Draw or Atletico Castegnato
59%

Winning margin

Montebelluna wins by 2+
20%
Atletico Castegnato wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Montebelluna 1+ goals
76%
Montebelluna 2+ goals
42%
Montebelluna 3+ goals
18%
Atletico Castegnato 1+ goals
72%
Atletico Castegnato 2+ goals
36%
Atletico Castegnato 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Montebelluna (draw refunded)
56%
Atletico Castegnato (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Montebelluna at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.46 · 65 matches

Atletico Castegnato away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.71 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Montebelluna attack 1.18 + Atletico Castegnato defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.44

Atletico Castegnato attack 1.06 + Montebelluna defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Montebelluna scores more
41%
level
26%
Atletico Castegnato scores more
33%

Montebelluna at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Montebelluna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone C: Montebelluna 0–0 Atletico Castegnato

Montebelluna and Atletico Castegnato drew 0-0 in Serie D - Girone C on March 28, 2024.

Goals: ? (20').

The match was played at Stadio San Vigilio in Montebelluna.