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Atletico Castegnato vs Montebelluna — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Atletico Castegnato
Atletico Castegnato
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Montebelluna
Montebelluna
11/19/2023Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 12Stadio Comunale Castegnato

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Atletico Castegnato35%
×Draw25%
Montebelluna40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atletico Castegnato
1.35
Montebelluna
1.45

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 64 away

creates per match

Atletico Castegnato
1.24
Montebelluna
1.19

allows per match

Atletico Castegnato
1.71
Montebelluna
1.47

finishing

Atletico Castegnato+0.00on par
Montebelluna+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Castegnato ↓

Montebelluna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Atletico Castegnato or draw
60%
Atletico Castegnato or Montebelluna
75%
Draw or Montebelluna
65%

Winning margin

Atletico Castegnato wins by 2+
16%
Montebelluna wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Atletico Castegnato 1+ goals
74%
Atletico Castegnato 2+ goals
39%
Atletico Castegnato 3+ goals
15%
Montebelluna 1+ goals
77%
Montebelluna 2+ goals
42%
Montebelluna 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Atletico Castegnato (draw refunded)
47%
Montebelluna (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Castegnato at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.71 · 17 matches

Montebelluna away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.47 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Castegnato attack 1.24 + Montebelluna defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.35

Montebelluna attack 1.19 + Atletico Castegnato defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Atletico Castegnato scores more
35%
level
25%
Montebelluna scores more
40%

Montebelluna at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Montebelluna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone C: Atletico Castegnato 0–1 Montebelluna

Montebelluna beat Atletico Castegnato 1-0 in Serie D - Girone C on November 19, 2023.

The match was played at Stadio Comunale Castegnato in Castegnato.