Monte Carlo 1–1 Jia Hua: Result & Stats

Monte Carlo

FT

1 – 1

Jia Hua

7/19/2024

Primeira Divisão · Relegation Round - 8Macau Olympic Complex Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Monte Carlo50%

×Draw19%

Jia Hua31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Monte CarloExpected goals in this matchJia Hua

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.67

2.10

Monte Carlo

2.67

Jia Hua

2.10

Monte Carlo creates 27% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 25 away

3.75

creates per match

3.32

0.88

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Monte Carlo

3.75

Jia Hua

3.32

allows per match

Monte Carlo

0.88

Jia Hua

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Monte Carlo+0.00on par

Jia Hua+0.00on par

Total goals

Over85
Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes81
No19

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Monte Carlo ↓

Jia Hua →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–02%

1–15%

1–25%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–24%

4–33%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

95%5%2.5

85%15%3.5

69%31%4.5

51%49%

Double chance

Monte Carlo or draw

69%

Monte Carlo or Jia Hua

81%

Draw or Jia Hua

50%

Winning margin

Monte Carlo wins by 2+

32%

Jia Hua wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Monte Carlo 1+ goals

93%

Monte Carlo 2+ goals

74%

Monte Carlo 3+ goals

49%

Jia Hua 1+ goals

88%

Jia Hua 2+ goals

62%

Jia Hua 3+ goals

35%

Draw no bet

Monte Carlo (draw refunded)

62%

Jia Hua (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

77%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Monte Carlo at home — creates 3.75, concedes 0.88 · 16 matches

Jia Hua away — creates 3.32, concedes 1.60 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Monte Carlo attack 3.75 + Jia Hua defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 2.67

Jia Hua attack 3.32 + Monte Carlo defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 2.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Monte Carlo scores more

50%

level

19%

Jia Hua scores more

31%

Monte Carlo at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Monte Carlo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff