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Jia Hua vs Monte Carlo — Primeira Divisão 2026

Jia Hua
Jia Hua
FT
1 – 2
Monte Carlo
Monte Carlo
4/20/2024Primeira DivisãoPrimeira Divisão · Round 8Macau Olympic Complex Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Jia Hua49%
×Draw22%
Monte Carlo29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jia Hua
1.96
Monte Carlo
1.49

Jia Hua creates 32% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 17 away

creates per match

Jia Hua
2.52
Monte Carlo
1.82

allows per match

Jia Hua
1.16
Monte Carlo
1.41

finishing

Jia Hua+0.00on par
Monte Carlo+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jia Hua ↓

Monte Carlo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Jia Hua or draw
71%
Jia Hua or Monte Carlo
78%
Draw or Monte Carlo
51%

Winning margin

Jia Hua wins by 2+
27%
Monte Carlo wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Jia Hua 1+ goals
86%
Jia Hua 2+ goals
58%
Jia Hua 3+ goals
31%
Monte Carlo 1+ goals
77%
Monte Carlo 2+ goals
44%
Monte Carlo 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Jia Hua (draw refunded)
62%
Monte Carlo (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jia Hua at home — creates 2.52, concedes 1.16 · 25 matches

Monte Carlo away — creates 1.82, concedes 1.41 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jia Hua attack 2.52 + Monte Carlo defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.96

Monte Carlo attack 1.82 + Jia Hua defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Jia Hua scores more
49%
level
22%
Monte Carlo scores more
29%

Jia Hua at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Jia Hua will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primeira Divisão: Jia Hua 1–2 Monte Carlo

Monte Carlo beat Jia Hua 2-1 in Primeira Divisão on April 20, 2024.

The match was played at Macau Olympic Complex Stadium in Taipa.