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Monte Carlo vs Cheng Fung — Primeira Divisão 2026

Monte Carlo
Monte Carlo
FT
2 – 1
Cheng Fung
Cheng Fung
6/25/2023Primeira DivisãoPrimeira Divisão · Round 14Macau Olympic Complex Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Monte Carlo62%
×Draw18%
Cheng Fung20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Monte Carlo
2.56
Cheng Fung
1.39

Monte Carlo creates 84% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 35 away

creates per match

Monte Carlo
3.75
Cheng Fung
1.89

allows per match

Monte Carlo
0.88
Cheng Fung
1.37

finishing

Monte Carlo+0.00on par
Cheng Fung+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Monte Carlo ↓

Cheng Fung →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Monte Carlo or draw
80%
Monte Carlo or Cheng Fung
82%
Draw or Cheng Fung
38%

Winning margin

Monte Carlo wins by 2+
41%
Cheng Fung wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Monte Carlo 1+ goals
92%
Monte Carlo 2+ goals
72%
Monte Carlo 3+ goals
46%
Cheng Fung 1+ goals
75%
Cheng Fung 2+ goals
40%
Cheng Fung 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Monte Carlo (draw refunded)
76%
Cheng Fung (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Monte Carlo at home — creates 3.75, concedes 0.88 · 16 matches

Cheng Fung away — creates 1.89, concedes 1.37 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Monte Carlo attack 3.75 + Cheng Fung defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 2.56

Cheng Fung attack 1.89 + Monte Carlo defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Monte Carlo scores more
62%
level
18%
Cheng Fung scores more
20%

Monte Carlo at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Monte Carlo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Monte Carlo vs Cheng Fung

Monte Carlo beat Cheng Fung 2-1 in Primeira Divisão on June 25, 2023.

The match was played at Macau Olympic Complex Stadium in Taipa.