Cheng Fung 3–1 Monte Carlo: Result & Stats

Cheng Fung

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Monte Carlo

3/30/2024

Primeira Divisão · Round 5Canidrome

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Cheng Fung36%

×Draw21%

Monte Carlo43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cheng FungExpected goals in this matchMonte Carlo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.80

1.98

Cheng Fung

1.80

Monte Carlo

1.98

Monte Carlo creates 10% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 17 away

2.19

creates per match

1.82

2.13

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Cheng Fung

2.19

Monte Carlo

1.82

allows per match

Cheng Fung

2.13

Monte Carlo

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cheng Fung+0.00on par

Monte Carlo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cheng Fung ↓

Monte Carlo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–28%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

52%48%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Cheng Fung or draw

57%

Cheng Fung or Monte Carlo

79%

Draw or Monte Carlo

64%

Winning margin

Cheng Fung wins by 2+

18%

Monte Carlo wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Cheng Fung 1+ goals

83%

Cheng Fung 2+ goals

54%

Cheng Fung 3+ goals

27%

Monte Carlo 1+ goals

86%

Monte Carlo 2+ goals

59%

Monte Carlo 3+ goals

31%

Draw no bet

Cheng Fung (draw refunded)

46%

Monte Carlo (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cheng Fung at home — creates 2.19, concedes 2.13 · 31 matches

Monte Carlo away — creates 1.82, concedes 1.41 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cheng Fung attack 2.19 + Monte Carlo defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.80

Monte Carlo attack 1.82 + Cheng Fung defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Cheng Fung scores more

36%

level

21%

Monte Carlo scores more

43%

Monte Carlo at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Monte Carlo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff